Our Methodology
Every report is written by our analysts. Every scenario is built on Elliott Wave Theory.
Elliott Wave Theory is the foundation of everything we publish. It gives our analysts a structural roadmap for price: defining where we are, where we're headed, and the exact level that changes everything. We layer fundamental context on top, but the wave count always comes first.
What is Elliott Wave Theory?
Discovered by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, Elliott Wave Theory observes that financial markets move in predictable, fractal wave patterns driven by collective investor psychology.
The core structure is a 5-wave impulse in the trend direction, followed by a 3-wave A-B-C correction against it. These patterns repeat at every timeframe, from monthly macro charts down to daily entry-level structures.
Elliott Wave is not prediction. It maps probabilities. It tells our analysts which scenario is most likely, defines the exact price that invalidates it, and provides Fibonacci-based targets for the next move.
EW is especially effective in liquid, sentiment-driven markets: broad equity indexes, sector ETFs, and individual stocks. These are markets where crowd psychology dominates and wave patterns express with the highest fidelity.
Our analysts apply Elliott Wave across the four asset classes we cover: US Indexes, Sector ETFs, Thematic ETFs, and individual US Stocks. Every report starts with the wave count, and every scenario is anchored to it.
Why Elliott Wave is Our Edge
Fractal Nature
The same patterns appear at every timeframe. Our analysts apply EW from monthly macro charts down to daily entry levels, giving subscribers a complete structural view.
Probability Mapping
We don't guess direction. We map the most probable path forward and define the exact price that invalidates the scenario. You always know where you stand.
Cross-Market Application
Elliott Wave works across all liquid markets: US stocks, sector ETFs, thematic ETFs, and indexes. One framework, four asset classes, consistent methodology.
How We Build Each Report
Wave Structure Analysis
Identify the current wave position on weekly and daily charts. Determine impulse vs correction, and which wave is active.
Fibonacci Targeting
Calculate extensions and retracements to set price targets. These become the report's key levels.
Fundamental Overlay
Review earnings, macro backdrop, and policy data. Fundamentals confirm or challenge the wave structure.
Scenario Construction
Write primary scenario (most probable), alternative scenario, and define exact invalidation level.
AI Commentary
AI generates detailed written analysis, key level tables, and short summaries from the analyst's wave count.
Publication
Reports published to subscribers. Daily briefings every weekday, full outlooks every Monday, deep dives as scheduled.
Every Report Answers These Questions
What wave are we in?
Primary scenario with position
Where is the target?
Fibonacci extension levels
What changes our view?
Exact invalidation price
What's the macro context?
Fundamental backdrop
What's the verdict?
Bullish / Bearish + conviction
Elliott Wave in Practice
SPY Wave Structure Example
In Q4 2024, SPY completed Wave 3 of the post-2022 impulse sequence at $480. The subsequent Wave 4 correction found support at the 38.2% retracement ($452). This setup provided a clear entry zone for Wave 5 targeting $510-$525.
This is the kind of structured, probability-based reasoning our analysts apply to every instrument, every week.
Fibonacci Retracement Probabilities
How deep does each corrective wave typically retrace? Based on historical analysis of major US equities and indexes:
| Wave | Fib Level | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Wave 2 | 50.0% | 30% of cases |
| 61.8% | 55% of cases | |
| 78.6% | 15% of cases | |
| Wave 4 | 23.6% | 25% of cases |
| 38.2% | 65% of cases |
See Elliott Wave Analysis in Action
Experience how wave structure turns into actionable scenarios.
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